Isaias Misjudged Abiy: What Else Is New?

It’s clear now, even to the staunchest supporters of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, those who secretly exercise their freedom to think, that he exercised very poor judgement about Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

1. In 2008, he, on camera, (a) deputized Abiy Ahmed Ali to “lead us”, (b) told the world Eritrea and Ethiopia are “one people”, echoing the slogan of, and empowering, every irredentist Ethiopian who believes Eritrea’s ports belong to him, (c) entered into secretive international treaties with Ethiopia which were (c.1) voted on by nobody because he had killed the parliament in 2002, (c.2) discussed by nobody because he had killed the private press in 2001.

He read Abiy wrong.  And Abiy is now showing his True Self: dismissive of Eritrean sovereignty.

Now, with an open mind, ask yourself: “what else was, and is, he disastrously wrong about, strictly seen from Eritrean national interest?”

2. Alienating all dissenters

3. Suspending then killing the constitution

4. Falsely promising, in 2014, that a new constitution is coming

5. Refusing to hold a party congress for his ruling party, #PFDJ, since 1994.  Consequence: stale political program, no  party-level elections to replace the massive loss in middle and upper leadership.

6. Building a single 12th-grade for the whole nation in the deserts of Sawa, and having the military administer it.  Sawa is a pipeline to indentured servitude and indefinite compulsory enlistment, thereby creating the world’s biggest Swarm of Stinging Wasps—a savage “push factor”, making Eritrea the largest exile per capita nation, a record for a nation in peacetime.

7. Pursuing pro-Somali Islamists and Djibouti-antagonistic policies that resulted in the 2009 sanctions after the @UN warned him twice¹  that if he didn’t cease and desist supporting armed groups in Somalia and pretending he had no border conflict with #Djibouti, sanctions were coming

8. Doubling down and getting #Eritrea its second more punitive and broader sanction (UN Resolution 2023) after he ignored another warning (UN Resolution 2002) and declined an invitation by the UN to address the Council and argue his case. (If he is not chairing a meeting he doesn’t attend it.)

9. That, after all the costly standoff with the UN that got Eritrea sanctioned and frozen, he ended up (a) supporting the Somalia TFG government he was fighting after the side he was supporting (ARS-Asmara) defected to the future of TFG (ARS-Djibouti) and (b) agreed to address his crisis with Djibouti by asking for Qatari mediation, after stubbornly telling the UN the border skirmish was a “fabrication”

The Djibouti crisis is unresolved after he, reversing decades-long claim that Eritrea never joins military alliances because they are polarizing, joined the Saudi Alliance at the order of #SaudiArabia, and broke ties with #Qatar, whose peacekeepers then left.  17 years alter, the border remains un-demacated and some POWs unaccounted for.

10. Warring and allying with #Tigray Region’s ruling party #TPLF, the same ones he told us for 27 years are an existential threat to Eritrea and the country will not fulfill its potential until they are #GameOver.

I could list at least 10 more but that will do.

When people say “you in the opposition always criticize: you have no solutions”, they appear to have forgotten Criticism of Act A is itself an Act B. Criticism involves analysis, articulation, and often a call for change, even if the call is implicit. If I criticize a reckless driver, the solution I am proposing (implicitly) is: don’t drive recklessly.

I don’t do implicit; The exact opposite of what Isaias has done or is doing is often the solution for Eritrea. Even when the act is right—like opposing Abiy’s imperialism—he is the wrong one to lead it.  He is most likely to make yet another terrible judgement: he can’t help it.

Eritrea’s former Foreign Minister, Haile Woldensae (#DeruE) has been disappeared for 24 years—about as long as he fought for Eritrea’s independence—because he allegedly (he denied it in an interview), called for the resignation of Isaias Afwerki while Eritrea was in the middle of the war (98-00).

We are not in the middle of a war, and I won’t deny I am saying this: the solution for Eritrea is for Isaias to resign and pave way for a peaceful power transfer to a government which enjoys the confidence of the people.

¹. PRST/2009/15;  UNSC R/1862