Of late, the government of President Isaias Afwerki has been issuing a series of Red Sea Doctrine papers. These are supposed to outline the government’s assessment of how Eritrea, other Red Sea states and their neighbors can optimize its use to maximize trade and security while maintaining paramount autonomy and sovereignty. “Surely,” will say some dead-ender Isaiaists, “you can’t possibly object to that unless you object for objection’s sake!” Easy, my amnesiac friend: the issue is not what Isaias says; it is that his judgement is always flawed and there is nobody to check him, resulting in Eritrea teetotaling from one turbid mess to another clusterfuck. And, no, my goal is not to win you over but to defeat you.
It takes a lot of work to convert a promising nation full of enterprising people who had experimented with political pluralism when most of Africa was still colonized; a proud people who are naturally peace-loving, harmonious and resilient; a people who sacrificed generations to build a democratic and just country, and convert them into a cowed people whose single question appears to be: how the hell do I get out of this country? And Isaias is a very hard working man and he calculated: just create round-the-clock war-or winds-of-war to disorient people.
There is a reason why Orwell’s “1984” is every free person’s favorite book about life under totalitarianism. As described in the book, one of totalitarianisms many features is constantly rewriting history: today’s enemy was ALWAYS an enemy and today’s friend was ALWAYS a friend. This gets hard in the age of Youtube and Google: consider what Isaias Afwerki said about Qatar 8 years ago in this 2-minute video (conducted in English, translated by Eri-TV to Tigrinya):
Oh, yes: in describing the Eritrea-Qatar relationship, every other word used was strategy and strategic. For those of you too young to know (and those of you too old to remember), here’s what Eritrea Foreign Policy was like between 2008-2017:
Scene 1: Eritrea president leaves Asmara on Qatari Airways
Scene 2: Eritrea president meets with Qatar Crown Prince
Scene 3: Eritrea president returns to Asmara on Qatari Airways.
There were some odd years where Isaias Afwerki made all the ministers humiliate themselves and line up on the airport tarmac to wish him safe trip (for a one hour flight) and then they would line up again to greet him when he came back. Rumors that መጺእካለይ ዶ ክጽበየካ music was played in the background have not been confirmed.
What happened in 2017? Saudi Arabia and Qatar had a falling out over many issues (Aljazeera, strains of Islam, relationship with Iran & Turkey) and Isaias took sides with the group which is less civilized and more responsible for more terrorism than any other country in the world (as an ideological and financial mecca for it): Saudi Arabia. Why? Because he felt like it that day which was the exact opposite of what he felt when he used to cite the massive human rights violations in Saudi Arabia as a rebuttal to any accusation he violates human rights.
And now? Now, Qatar is Enemy State # 1 plotting to overthrow the Isaias government, according to Isaias. It is doing this, according to Isaiasists, by colluding with Sudan and some Eritrean sheiks (whisper: jihad, Muslims.) Now, if after you heard the interview of escaped prisoner Pilot Dejen Andehishel and his report of his cellmate, the Sudanese who was accused of plotting to kill Isaias Afwerki in the 1990s, you still believe Isaias stories, I have a few words for you. Well I don’t but the American heavy metal band Tool says you are an insecure actress, a junkie, a fake gangsta wanna-be, and suffering from acute short memory which doesn’t remember that right now, as you read this, there are thousands of Eritreans in underground prisons, some of whom have been there for decades:
Pick any country and you will find that Isaias has switched that enemy-friend-enemy label (each time the relationship described as strategic). Iran is now an enemy. But not in 2008. (Link). USA is an enemy now. But not in 2002. (Link). Nigeria. Uganda. Kenya. Every country except one: the one that terrifies him: Israel. But I wrote about this–the opportunistic and self-serving code of Dukan Isaias–already and it is called The Shitara Code. (Link) In this article I am arguing that the Shitara Code has run its course.
It’s only the Shitara Code that explains for example what Eritrea’s position is on China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI.) Eritrea has no position but Isaias does. This is why two years ago he sent Hagos Gebrehiwet (“Kisha”) to attend the BRL meeting in Beijing and then to represent the government (Hagos has no government portfolio but he manages Isaias’ personal finances) when the Chinese Embassy in Eritrea made a presentation. (here) At this years’s BRI, Eritrea was a no-show because Hagos is no longer relevant (Isaias found new ways to hide his stolen money.) In contrast, every country in the world has a strong opinion about BRI: some love it (Italy became first G-7 country to join); some fear it (Russia, America); and some absolutely hate it (India.) What exactly does Eritrea feel about BRI, in light of the fact that the proposed trade route goes right through the Red Sea?
Isaias & The Red Sea
As I mentioned, over the last few months, the Isaias News Network has been pushing out editorials and press releases on Eritrea’s position on the Red Sea. This is a bit curious, since Eritrea is not a player in the Belt & Road Initiative, and it is also not a signatory to the Africa Free Trade Area (read: Why Eritrea Did Not Sign The AfCFTA),
So why is Isaias (and yes it’s him based on the signature piece of his narrating history from the Cold War) bloviating? There are several reasons. One, there was a huge blowback to all the Isaias Koshemshem of Summer 2018 in Ethiopia where he not only flirted with selling the sovereignty of Eritrea but insisted on televising it. Even the loyal hairy-calved (ጨጓር ዳንጋ) Nehna Nsu started complaining so he started doing what he does best when caught red-handed: change the subject and start ‘splaining. The second reason, despite all his chastising others as Khedemti (servants), he is now essentially THE khedami (servant) of UAE and Saudi Arabia. The 2015 UAE/Saudi Arabia foray into our Asab port, lied about consistently for four years, was falling apart: even our useless Yemane Gebremeskel (Minster of Information) took a break from reading his hate-posts at twitter to grudgingly confirm it. The third reason–and please do not dismiss this offhand–is that the man is completely bored out of his mind in Adi Halo. You can actually tell how bored Isaias is by the number of Tigrinya words he invents per essay and on the last Red Sea “editorial” it was one per paragraph.
Meaningless Without Institutionalism
The 2001 Open Letter of G-15 is 30 pages and if you were to boil it down into one sentence it would be: “Isaias Afwerki resists every attempt at creating institutions: institutions within the ruling party (PFDJ) and institutions within the Government.” Thus, the first thing to note about the Red Sea Policy is that like all Isaias policies it is, as the Sawa kids famously explain, “written in pencil.” Here today gone tomorrow back the day after. And this is why the “peace and friendship agreement” with Ethiopia is going nowhere fast: because Ethiopian wants to institutionalize things and Isaias doesn’t (more on that on next edition of Dr. Newitol.) And yes, I would like my money now with all the people I bet that Isaias would close the Eritrea-Ethiopia border. You know who you are.
On this “Red Sea” thing that the usual suspects are fawning over: which think tank debated it? Which scholars discussed it? At which Cabinet of Ministers was it discussed? Parliament? Forum? Seminar? Symposium? Nowhere. As Isaias Afwerki once told his Eri-TV interviewer—ሓንቲ ጽብቕቲ ዓንቀጽ ጽሒፈ ኔረ (I had written a good article about it), marking the first time Isaias said something complimentary about an Eritrean (himself, of course). So this is not a policy but just another ሓንቲ ጽብቕቲ ዓንቀጽ.
How can this “policy” be executed on the ground? Notwithstanding all the lip service the “National Charter” gives to transparency and freedom of information and rule of law, this is where we are in 2019:
(1) Right To Information: Never mind the public, even government officials (who are supposed to execute the policies) don’t know policy, much less having a hand in drafting it. For example: Eritrea’s role in the Saudi-Yemen War. How did Eritrea switch from helping the Houthis in Yemen and facilitating Iran’s influence in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf to helping the Saudis and UAE? Because, in 2014, after warning Eritrea to desist, the Saudis bombed the Bisha Mine (Weyane doesn’t have McDonnel Douglas F-15 Eagle fighter planes) and Isaias surely understands the power of the whip. Within one year, he had switched sides. Do “Presidential Advisor” Yemane Gebreab or “Foreign Minister” Osman Saleh have a clue about this? No. Would they even dare ask Isaias why we are switching sides? No. Osman Saleh doesn’t even think he has the right to walk on the Isaias Red Carpet at airports: he appears terrified of his own shadow. And Yemane is the guy who told you the constitution was alive and kicking months before Isaias told him, no, its dead. They are the Laurel & Hardy show without the humor, the Scooby-Doo gang without the ability to solve mysteries. But don’t be surprised if, next week, they show up in China because the pencil-drafted policy of Bored Isaias tells them to.
2. Absence of Rule of Law: Facing a huge demonstrating population, Sudan’s Omar Al-Beshir found a preacher-for-hire who found something in the sacred book (you can always find it if you look hard) that says it is ok to kill up to a 1/3 of the population to maintain “law and order.” Omar Albashir ordered that, his generals said, “hell no” and now he is in Khartoum’s maximum security prison Kobar (no thoughts or prayers for that a-hole.)
In Eritrea, it is not just that there is no constitution; it is not that there is no rule of law. It is worse. It is that there are also no binding organizational (PFDJ) bylaws and no helpful EPLF “culture.” Thus, when a policy is announced, it is never clear whether that is because it is in the interest of the nation and the people or whether (most likely) it is to extend the power grip of the mad man who won the musical chair game and lords over Eritrea.
3. The Quaintness of Principles: Do you remember these words: Fewda Khalaqa (creative chaos) and chaos management? I do. Because Isaias Afwerki used them a 100 times to condemn the “hegemonies” who create crisis just to manage it. Oh, lordy lordy lord: he was sufficiently outraged and morally indignant flaring his nostrils and waving his arms wildly like a Sicilian sailor. So what does he do when Saudi Arabia (a hegemon in its mind) and UAE commit war crimes in Yemen bombing children? He facilitates it. He is bringing shame on Eritrea that generations of Eritreans will have to bear. Why? Because he has absolutely no principles, none, except for: staying in power. So what does all the big talk about the Red Sea mean if, with just another editorial, it can be erased if, say, he whores out himself to Turkey, China, Russia, US? Nothing.
Wait, there is more. Do you know that Eritrea is now part of of the Islamic Coalition bombing Yemen? It is amazing that a lot of the people whose three favorite words are CIA, Jihad, Weyane don’t know that mad man Isaias has enlisted Eritrea in the “Islamic Coalition” headed by Saudi Arabia. How the hell is that our fight, considering that Eritrea is 50% Christian? Considering that we want nothing to do with sectarian governments? Even within the 50% Moslem Eritreans, how many consider Saudi Arabia a decent country? I would say it is between 0% and 5%. If Iran and Saudi Arabia went to war, how many Eritreans would actually root for Saudi Arabia to win and how many would root for Iran to win? Exactly. What Isaias Afwerki is pursuing is, in keeping with his long tradition, a case of flawed judgement and extreme selfishness of a man who doesn’t give a shit about what happens to Eritrea after God calls him home. (News bulletin to Nehna Nsu: sooner than later, mortality will catch up with him.)
4. The Way Forward
This is the part of the article where I am supposed to tie it all together, right? Here’s the thesis, here is the body and here is the conclusion. Right? Well, I am not going to. Here’s the point: there are two sides, on each side of the clearly delineated line of Eritrean politics. On one side is the insane Isaiasists party. No, I don’t call them Isaiasists because I like to coin words: it is because Isaias, not PFDJ, is their constant. Every time Isaias had a war with PFDJ–on the frequency of organizational congresses, on the frequency of elections, on the implementation of the PFDJ charter, on the righteous cause of the G-15–they have always sided with Isaias. On the other side is the rest of us: those of us who believe that there is never, ever, ever justification to disappear, imprison, torture, kill Eritreans no matter how many fucking times you say Weyane, digital weyane, Langley, CIA, Jihad, ተጻባእቲ: ሓምሻይ መስርዕ: ወይጦ: ጡልቅያት, etc.
And, we are going to win. Why? Because Isaias and Isaiasists didn’t prevail over occupational forces of Ethiopia. We, the people did. Because ten random people from Medeber, after they dusted off the pepper from the pepper mill and the nails from theirs leather sandals, can do better running the country than Isaias Afwerki and his Collection of the Castrated.
We are finally ready for war–not bloody war but stare-down contest. And we won’t stop until we totally defeat the lying, scheming, stalling culture of Isaias and his ShiTara Code. Those who are sitting on the fence better figure out real fucking soon which side they are on. We are too angry, too injured, and too wounded to listen to any fables and fairy tales. This is what we really mean when we say #Yiakl. And those of you who tell us: come and fight us: you are medieval people and your medieval tools (you have a hammer and you think everything is a nail) won’t help you.
We will isolate lying, scheming Isaias Afwerki. We will separate the security services and the armed forces from him. We will reduce him to the status of Omar Albeshir. If you are an Isaiasists, no, we are not trying to win you over, we are not trying to persuade you. We are just telling you what will happen, as a courtesy, because he never does and we love you. The decades of the Shitara Code are over.
At this point, some of you Isaiaists are saying, “Oh, you have been saying this since 2000.” No. In 2000, I said “Shaebia ktHaqiq Alewa” (The People’ Front Should Dissolve Itself.) Not “will”, but “should.” And now I am saying, based on preponderance of evidence, the people–the overwhelming majority of Eritrean people–have rejected Isaias. If you are an Isaiasist, don’t worry: on his obituary, I will write something nice in perfect Isaias Tigrinya, using his favorite reference: the Cold War. It will begin: ኣብዚ እነሆ እንቅዓ ሓሶት…
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