Two truths and a lie is one of those games people play when they are trying to introduce themselves. Supposing Abraham Lincoln was at a party and he said “I am a licensed bartender, a licensed doctor and a licensed lawyer”, and you were guessing which one was the lie? The correct answer would be: he was not a “licensed doctor.” It gets people to know one another deeply, but in a fun way. Now suppose this game was extended to nations and Eritrea was playing.
It would be a hilarious game, regardless who is representing Eritrea: the government, the opposition, or opponment (the opposition who sometimes think they are the government.) So, let’s play that game.
Eritrean Gov: Truth Or Lie?
Truth Or Lie 1: Right now, in Eritrea, just as it was in the dying days of Ethiopian Strongman Mengistu Hailemariam, it is illegal to sell a cow or an ox to anybody but the government. The government will weigh it and give you a flat rate of 35 Nakfa per kilo. If you try to sell it to anybody, your whole herd will be confiscated. I mean nationalized. (Victory to the Masses.)
Truth or Lie 2: Right now, in Eritrea, the government is going house-to-house and asking residents how many TV sets they have. It is a nation without a census of people (since 1984) but it will have an accurate count of Assenna TV, dammit.
Truth or Lie 3: Right now, in Eritrea, we have only one legal party (which hasn’t had a congress in 25 years), no constitution, no national elections, no private press and no separation of powers.
So, in this game of Two Truths And A Lie, which one is the lie? Plot twist: they are all true. I invented a new game. And guess what: none of you are shaking your heads: if you are an opposition, you are saying, “not surprised!” if you are a gov supporter, you are torn between calling me a liar or finding a perfectly plausible explanation for everything your government is doing.
So, in this type of country with a population of less than four million (that’s it! less than four inside, a million outside), with this type of government (the worst), what type of opposition should rise to the occasion? Let’s have the Opposition tell us 2 Truths and a Lie about itself:
Eritrean Opposition: Truth or Lie
Truth or Lie 1: We consider debating this topic very important: whether the Tigrinya-speaking people of Eritrea and Ethiopia are very close, should they get closer, who is preventing them from getting closer: this is crucial, man.
Truth or Lie 2: We consider debating whether somebody is an Eritrean native (length of ancestral presence in Eritrea undefined: it is as long as whoever is claiming it) or is a newbie (parents are non-Eritreans, double whammy if they are Ethiopian) is why we have a country without a constitution, despite the fact that the 1997 constitution says absolutely nothing about this: it is a fairly liberal document.
Truth or Lie 3: In the face of Isaias’ race towards converting Eritrea from a one-party State to a one-family State, the Eritrean opposition is consolidating and merging into a formidable organization.
I know: I made it too easy. In the real game, it is more challenging. If Sudan was to play 2 Truths and a Lie, but to make it more fun, it played the game last year around this time, forecasting what would happen in 2019:
Sudanese Edition: Truth or Lie
Truth or Lie 1: Omar Al Beshir would be arrested and, in his trial, admit he had received 25 million from Saudi Crown Prince, which he stashed away in his house (now just imagine how much Isaias has gotten for pocket money from the same Crown Prince);
Truth or Lie 2: The feared Rapid Forces would be dissolved and the Hmeidti dude go back to trading camels.
Truth or Lie 3: The new government would have a military president, a female Orthodox judge, and an educated prime minister collectively known as Sovereignty Council and the aforementioned PM would staff his cabinet with technocrats with a quota for women;
All of them would have been hard to believe. Here, 2 is the lie, sadly.
Comparing Sudanese and Ethiopia’s Positive Changes
If one looks at our two large neighbors, Sudan and Ethiopia, it is remarkable how there are some similarities and a lot of differences in how they managed their change. It is on the one similarity I want to focus on because it has direct application to Eritrea.
And that is: reformers within the ruling party were part of the change. But they did not spring spontaneously: they were pressured to it by people’s uprising. In Ethiopia, it was the Qerro movement (internal), cheered on and amplified by people like the now often-unfairly-maligned Jawar (external.) In Sudan, it was the professionals and students (internal), cheered on and amplified by Sudanese Diaspora (external) which got them to overcome more foreign external pressures.
Had it not been for the people’s movement, in Ethiopia, right now, Abiy Ahmed would have been cautiously plotting his climb up the EPRDF hierarchy, whether that was as an uber-spy or as a 22nd century time machine traveler telling tall tales of በኣሜሪካን አገር:: (Lately supplemented by Israeli tales. More on that later.) Even with People Power, it was the peculiar rules of EPRDF that made him, and not the heir-apparent Lemma Megersa, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Lemma is the ice to Abiy’s fire and if he had been Ethiopia’s PM, we would have been spared all the hand-holding and hugging Ethiopia does with our own Stalin, Isaias Afwerki. And, without People Power, Sudan’s military may have had the strength to depose of Omar Al Beshir, but they would have found Omar Al Beshir 2 to continue the stranglehold with different arms. Because that’s all a military mind is capable of: it is too “practical” and therefore unimaginative.
Lessons for Eritrea?
The solution in Eritrea is likewise: for reformers within the ruling regime (party, government) to arrest Isaias Afwerki using Eritrean laws. (See also here and here.) But, without People Power (which definitely includes Diaspora Power), this is likely to be power transfer from one dinosaur to another alligator. The alligator then names “new blood” who would be worse: pursuing disastrous policies with the earnestness of the true believer, completely oblivious to the fact that whatever they are selling has been tried and failed. Consider, for example, the difference between Mehretab Medhanie and Zemhret Yohannes: both pursue idiotic and failed policies; but the former is decades younger than the latter and, therefore, has no knowledge or recollection of how atrocious the disastrous policy he is pursuing are.
Well, you say, this “People Power” sounds vague and sloganny and bumper-sticky and is therefore useless. Can you flesh it out a bit so we can criticize it and tell you how wrong you are? Sure, happy to oblige, with my premises outlined first:
Premise One: With the exception of the delusional few, the overwhelming majority of Eritreans have completely given up on Isaias and PFDJ. Sure, the delusional few say, “give them time; give them space” but for most Eritreans, Isaias and PFDJ have been tried and have been declared as irredeemable failures who have made failure a habit of governance. Whatever it is they are good at, governing is not one of them;
Premise Two: The above public opinion is unlikely to change because the Eritrean government has had a 28-year record of unmitigated disaster in all facets of governance: securing the peace, economic development, social development, political space even for one-party growth (never mind political pluralism). With its wanton destruction of Eritrea’s institutions (religious and private) and its refusal to reverse a policy that has contributed the most to Eritrean exodus, its a system the people have given up on.
Premise Three: The above two being the case, the future relationship between the government and the governed is one where the governed increasingly loudly express their bitterness, with laser focus not on Weyane, USA, the World but the ruling party and its chairman. In these circumstances, in normal countries, the government makes concessions to win them over. But Eritrea under Isaias is never normal and will resort to use increasingly more draconian measures fueling their bitterness;
Premise Four: In the very stratified structure of Eritrea’s politics of very corrupt elite vs the rest, the “governed” includes many who are theoretically part of the government but are so powerless that for all intent and purposes they are part of the bitter governed. This includes some government officials who, on paper, look powerful but in fact are as powerless as the ordinary citizen. To break it down to injera and shro issues, it is impossible to live in Eritrea (pay for your food and shelter) unless you are being subsidized by a Diaspora family member. (Something to consider for our compatriots in the Opposition who are relentlessly pursuing the very few and very stupid kids in Norway who were dancing with Yemane Gebreab with their Amazon.com military fatigues.)
Premise Five: The #Yiakl Movement is REAL and a lot of the posters, graffiti that show up in Eritrea are a manifestation of this. It is very likely that most of them are not written by the “bold youth” but by members of the Eritrean Defense Forces and the Tegadelti class. The activity in Eritrea mirrors what we do in Diaspora: if we show ourselves organized and energetic, our people back home are; when we go deep into rabbit holes of Dekebat, Dekenat, Tigray-Tigrini, Agazian, they just shake their heads at us and say: we thought only the Isaiasists are delusional. These topics are what Dr. Almaz Zere called “holding hostage subjects” in her address.
Premise Six; Bolokh is coming. Bolokh is simply my short-hand for something completely unexpected, triggered by something very expected. Wedi Ali was Bolokh. Haji Mussa was Bolokh.
With those premises out of the way, the question is what it always was: what can we do to speed this up, since those in Eritrea look to us for leadership and we in the Diaspora look to Eritrea for leadership? What can we do to more effectively link up with them and to embolden them into taking risks for Eritrea? Yes, yes, yes, of course: change will come from within (by definition) but we Eritreans, inside and outside, have a role to play. Those of us who want positive change have to pursue it with the same zeal, energy and commitment as those who want to maintain status quo do. We have an advantage over them because we don’t have to deal with a Zeragito who sabotages all our work, like they do with Isaias.
Assessment One; Due to its principled refusal to consolidate into a potent organization and its voluntarily refraining from recruiting new members, the traditional Eritrean opposition has chosen a slow painless death. (Our thoughts and prayers.) It has said we are not viable and don’t want to be, but do consult with us as needed.
Thank you for your services.
Now is the turn of the New Generation (and women!) to lead the movement for change. This movement has to be unbridled by ancient talk of Badme, borders, Debrezeit, Awassa, sanctions that were the fields of older men. Those times are gone and while each has its lessons to teach, it can’t be used as a wedge issue. It means building from scratch is better than trying to join an existing organization specially when the existing organization has nothing to offer but guilt-by-association. When you say “yiakl” say also, loudly, “yiakl” to the politics of division and politics of medieval times. Do not be ambivalent about Dekebat, Deki Arba’a, Tigray-Tigrini, Agazian, etc: don’t try to be clever and think of it as part of the movement: it is not. It is a toxic brew that must be thrown out. There is no right amount of toxic brew that’s good for you. “Yiakl” simply means “enough” (enough to dictatorship and incompetence) and we will surely continue to say it as people’s alarm clocks are not all set to 6:00 am, but equal attention must be paid to sharing our vision for Eritrea, an Eritrea freed from the suffocating tentacles of the People’s Front.
Assessment Two: Let’s build and inventory our capacity. What does that mean? We have lawyers, medical professionals, journalists, scholars, historians, soldiers, experienced politicians and perhaps most import, artists in exile: let’s reactivate these groups and make them a vital part of the movement for change. It’s only when we do that that we will encourage Eritreans in Eritrea to take risks for Eritrea. They need to know that after Isaias and his motley crew, Eritrea will be safer and more prosperous.
Assessment Three: In our well-intentioned goals of trying to boost our morale, let’s not go down the path of withholding truth. Because no movement made any progress by fooling itself. Similarly, in the pursuit of truth, let’s not antagonize one another and pursue useless topics: let’s correct each other with tact and class, the way Wedi Tkabo did in Los Angeles when he was there to celebrate Yiakl/Awate/09.01:
Right on, Wedi Tkabo. So here’s Yiakl Washington DC just a week later (yesterday):
Let’s amplify the work of our independent media by supporting one another and learning from one another. Even if that means using Adobe products with Tes Meharenna. (Ugggg: the things we have to sacrifice for Eritrea.)
I will end this the same way I started with Two Truths and A Lie about Eritrea, for our slow learners:
More Truth & Lie For Slow Learners
Truth or Lie 1: More than a year after peace and friendship agreement with Ethiopia, we still have indefinite conscription, no constitution, and thousands of Eritreans, including minors, in jail without a day in a court of law.
Truth or Lie 2: The exodus out of Eritrea continues unabated, and they will re-open the border with Ethiopia a year after they opened it, but then closed it without any explanation, and the State media still hasn’t interviewed General Sebhat Ephrem to tell us about Isaias failed assassination attempt on him;
Truth or Lie 3: After a lengthy campaign to encourage you to sign our petition to End High School In Sawa, a school that contributes to the exodus of Eritreans and is a terrible school to boot, tens of thousands of you have signed it.
The lie is #3. Let’s fix it. The link is provided (“sign our petition to end high school in sawa“). If you are not signing it because you don’t understand why are we “asking” when we know the Isaias government will do nothing. It’s not going to him but institutions like the Human Rights Council (HRC): the only ones that the Isaias Government has to do its homework and turn its assignment to and in the process, tell us two lies and a truth. Just sign it!
Truth or Lie: Ethiopian Edition
We don’t want our southern neighbors to be left out of this game. So, you know how Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been playing footsie with Israel’s Bibi last week? So, um, this happened and to help him (it’s just good neighborliness!) we are going to show him the classic magic key trick first, then have him listen to his words about how Palestinians willingly gave the keys to their State to Israelis. Maybe he will stop saying such things or will double down:
