Eritrea: Betrayals and Pyrrhic Victories

What was the war about? And what is this peace about? And why did peace happen in June 2018 and not, for example, in November 2004? Why was there a “border war” in May 1998 to begin with?  What is our peace dividend?

It was not about borders or demarcation. If it was, 7 weeks after Ethiopia unconditionally accepted the Algiers Agreement, there would be some movement there. But, PM Abiy said yesterday, they haven’t even begun talking about the border. It is a secondary issue, he said. They have been too busy dialoguing peace to worry about demarcation which (dialogue now, demarcation later) is exactly a deal we could have had 14 years ago.

https://youtu.be/SEewjUuruNk?t=2m44s

It was not about Eritrea. If it was, people would raise holy hell when their president said that Ethiopians and Eritreans are one people and one country, an argument that Eritreans spent 50 years, and gave up untold sacrifices, winning.

https://youtu.be/g14Z0Iy6iME?t=5m46s

It’s not about sovereignty. If it was, people would raise holy hell when their president, who usurped power, usurped it further by giving it to a non-Eritrean (Abiy, constitutionally required to place Ethiopia’s interest above all else) to run our affairs.

ህዝቢ ኤርትራን ህዝቢ ኢትዮፕያን ረኺቡዎ ዘሎ ዕድል ቀሊል ነገር ኣይኮነን እወ ኣነ ተደጋጋሚ ተደጋጋሚ ኢለዮ ኣለኹ ዝኾነ ዝግበር ነገር እንድሕር ኣሎ ወኪል ንስኻ ኢኻ: ንስኻ ኢኻ ትመርሓና: ንቀልዕለም ኖ ኖ ናይ ንቀልዓለም ኢለ ከሐጉሶ ኢለ ወይ ዘረባ ንኽጥዕመኒ ምእንቲ ኢለ ዝብሎ ዘይኮነ ናይ ብሓቂ እዚ ሕጂ ህይወት ኣልቢስና ንደፍኦ ዘለና ሰላም ፍቕሪ ጸጋ ናይ ክልቲኣቶም ህዝብታት ጥራይ ዘይኮነ ናይ ልምዓት ናይ ገስጋስ ናይ ዕብየት መደባትና ሓደ ካብቲ ካልእ ዝፍለ ኣይኮነን ነዚ ካኣ ዶክተር ኣብይ ብዝድለ ክመርሓና እዩ::

Contrast this handover of power without the input of the Eritrean people to what exactly was the trigger for Eritrea’s armed struggle as prophetically told by Ibrahim Sultan in one of his many letters to the United Nations in the 1940s and 1950s:

“The Eritrean people’s cause is a just cause of the independence of people who refuse and reject any form of annexation, dismemberment or a return to the hated colonialism no matter what type it would be, whatever form it takes, or from which direction it comes. This indisputable right to independence to which our country is attached can not be ignored without creating a new area of strife in East Africa, since the Eritrean people will never accept Ethiopian domination.”

Then, ponder this slavish admission, this national embarrassment:

It’s not about the Eritrean people. If it was, why have none of the political prisoners been freed—some in jail for a decade, some for two decades, some for more? Shouldn’t people be screaming bloody hell for their release now that all the excuses used for their arrest are depleted?  Where is our peace dividend?

It is all about the mutual hatred of EPLF/PFDJ and TPLF.  For the TPLF, the solution for Eritrea was sometimes “regime change” and sometimes a cold war.   For the PFDJ, the TPLF had to be “defeated”: by which did they mean: they had to lose based on the bylaws of the coalition party they created and constitutional system they designed so they can leave Addis and focus their efforts in Mekele? No, they were supposed to be overthrown by all the armed groups who had declared an armed struggle from Eritrea–resulting in the extension on the sanction on Eritrea.  But now that the system the TPLF created caught up with them–a natural, internal Ethiopian dynamic– it has to be declared an Eritrean victory following precisely the strategy designed and pursued by Isaias Afwerki.   A friend calls this: “bullseye drawn after a dart is thrown.”   Wherever the dart lands, the bullseye can scoop it and declare “mission accomplished”, “game over”, etc.

This is why, even as the nation collapsed, the USSR used to feed its populace WWII videos of USSR triumphing over Germany. Similarly, the triumphant PFDJ presiding over a rapidly declining state has to talk over, and over, and over about the TPLF. Well, until Abiy or the UAE Emir gives Isaias Afwerki the green light it is time to stop. Then they will be reminding us about how Harbeyna Weyane has always believed in our cause that we are a colonized people and since the colonizer and colonized are the same people, oh, heck, we colonized ourselves. We are special.

And for this most pyrrhic of “victories”, Eritrea had to be sanctioned, had to exile half a million people to the other half million already exiled, subjected to the worst of the worst human traffickers, drown in the Mediterranean, be in a state of war and military readiness, undeclared state of emergency, make zero progress in building political institutions, and an economic system based on coupons and stipends.

And now, the supporters are hoping (not even demanding but hoping) that the same Master Engineer of the Disaster will reform himself, as long as we don’t pressure him. Like the monster Dr Frankenstein created will reform himself, no longer a fallen angel but an Adam. This one guy who has betrayed Eritrea and all its dead and living heroes more than any other enemy foreign or domestic as documented here is, they hope, going to lead Eritrea’s reform movement.  Shouldn’t the absolute minimum demand of the Eritrean people be, for this man, who has betrayed the cause of the Eritrean people, to resign?

https://youtu.be/XM3-nVPH6VQ