HomeAnalysisWhy Did Amina Mohammed Lose A Sure Thing?

Writing for Aljazeera, Hamza Mohammed gave a lot of reasons why Amina Mohammed, Kenya’s foreign minister, who was the favorite to win the Capo di tutti capi of the African Union, lose. Β Here they are, in his own words:

  1. Kenya did not make its stand on the disputed territory of Western Sahara clear. When lobbying the pro-Morocco camp Kenya, sources told us, said it was in favour of Morocco’s readmission to the AU. But when Kenyan officials met the pro-Polisario camp they said they were not. Kenyan officials refused to publicly clarify what their position was.
  2. The Kenyan candidate has also been a fierce critic of the International Criminal Court and this did not sit well with the countries who are in favour of the Hague-based court, which has been often accused of bias against African nations.

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    Amina, who is not a career politician unlike her opponents, is a first-term foreign minister and lacks the weight and experience of dealing with major security matters, some analysts said.

  3. In contrast, the winner, Moussa Faki, is a former Chadian prime minister and is currently foreign affairs minister at a time when N’Djamena is leading the regional fight against the armed group Boko Haram.
  4. Some heads of state saw Amina as too close to President Kenyatta and questioned whether she could be truly neutral. Would she be able to stand up to Uhuru if elected, many asked? Β  Amina, who is not a career politician unlike her opponents, is a first-term foreign minister and lacks the weight and experience of dealing with major security matters, some analysts said.

While Hamza writes persuasively, he leaves out the most important one: the real reason she lost is because in the last round Djibouti switched sides. Β And if you are superstitious, Amina was supported by Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki. Β And that guy has the reverse-midas touch: everything he touches turns to ashes.