Short answer: it doesn’t matter because the Nobel Peace Prize continues to be less and less relevant. Also, who else are they going to give it to: Isaias?
Longer answer:
The Norwegian Nobel Committee named Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed its 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Winner. (Or, as we Habesha call it: “noble piece price.”) The question is the same one asked of every Prize Winner, regardless of the category: does s/he deserve it? Here are the cases for and against, and where this website stands (as if anyone asked.)
The Case Against Abiy
Ever since he burst on the scene in early 2018, Abiy Ahmed has often betrayed a troubling je ne sais pas : under the very polished, very scripted and rehearsed suit is emptiness. A man who believes in nothing, except in some messianic prophecy that he is destined to be Ethiopia’s Prime Minister. He has that prosperity televangelist, that pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps motivational speaker fakery that, you think, is all sizzle no steak. When the lights are out, there is nothing there. He is a born Number 2, which makes him an easy prey for any influencer: US ambassador to Ethiopia, Isaias Afwerki, Berhanu Negga, or whoever handed him the last book from Oprah’s Book Club or the Spark Notes of Communism (Mark, Stalin yemibal sewye, etc.) That, for a man of peace, he appears to be tone-deaf about death and suffering and displacement or the people who cause it–Isaias Afwerki, for example. And the danger is, under the wrong tutelage, he can be another authoritarian because the whiny people forced him to be:
Abiy Ahmed Being Corruped By Isaias Afwerki? from saay on Vimeo.
The Case for Abiy
The rationale the Norwegian Nobel Committee gave for awarding him was: “for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea. The prize is also meant to recognise all the stakeholders working for peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia and in the East and Northeast African regions….. No doubt some people will think this year’s prize is being awarded too early. The Norwegian Nobel Committee believes it is now that Abiy Ahmed’s efforts deserve recognition and need encouragement”. [Emphasis added]
Team Lemma or not, it was Abiy who gets the credit for breaking Ethiopia’s 20 year belligerence on its peace treaty with Eritrea; it was Abiy who freed thousands of Ethiopian prisoners; ended Ethiopia’s arbitrary Anti-Terrorism Proclamation (ATP); elevated women-in-power to 50% of Ethiopia; declared Ethiopia-under-TPLF/EPRDF a “terrorist state”; embraced all exiled opposition; reduced Ethiopia’s journalist prisoner population to zero, and reconciled the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahdo Church with itself.
Can things go off the rails? Sure! But the Committee always rewards initiatives and partners in the initiative, and not necessarily fruition of the initiatives. For example, a few years ago, it awarded the president of Colombia the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the country’s 50-year-long civil war. But check any week’s news and you will learn that the civil war can break out any time because many Colombians don’t think that the peace agreement brought any change. Similarly, it gave the award to Aung San Suii Kyi (initiative), and now she is defending herself on charges of genocide (results.)
But there is something about Abiy, some New Age-y thing the Committee fell in love with. I have asked my Ethiopian friends to give me the most representative video of Abiy at his best and this is the one that @Natberh and @AmdeBrahan sent to me. It was the precursor to “Mark” and “Stalin Yemibal Sewye” with a lot of pseudoscience. So blame them, not me.
Nobel, Person of The Year, Etc
The symbolic awards that the Norwegian Nobel Committee gives for Peace are based more on popularity and feel-goody public relations than cold, hard logical decisions. Remember, they gave Obama a Nobel Peace Prize because he sounded peaceful and got all the hippies happy (initiative) and not because he flew fewer drone flights bombing innocent civilians (results). He droned a lot more than the man they would never consider: George W Bush. Thus, in a few years, the Nobel Peace Prize will eventually be no different than Time Magazine’s “Person of the Year”: once prestigious, now irrelevant. Thus, despite Abiy Ahmed’s hopes that Africa would be proud of him for winning the Nobel, speaking for one African, I consider the Peace Prize simply an exercise in public relations, reflecting the very New Age values of the Committee (look at all award winners in the past 10 years.) In the end, Abiy’s term in Ethiopia will be judged on his ability to return the uprooted to their homes; to strengthen institutions of justice and democracy; to lift his people out of poverty and to be a force for good in the region, including Eritrea. And in that regard, because he is a Born Number Two, it is unclear whether he will be strongly influenced by the sadist he affectionately calls “Issu” and drift towards authoritarianism and centralization or pursue the liberalization of Ethiopia.
As for us Eritreans, well, we can expect Abiy Ahmed (in his acceptance speech) to scratch his nails on the blackboard and annoy us by saying some flattering things about our tormenter Isaias Afwerki, more evidence about his tone-deafness. But it is futile because the world knows, Eritreans know that Isaias Afwerki is a spent force, who will be remembered as one of the most brutal, inhumane and anti-peace people in Africa. If Abiy needs a reminder of that, all he has to do is compare the changes Ethiopia experienced under his premiership with the regression Eritrea is experiencing under Isaias Afwerki in the same period. A good primer is an article which appeared here last year: 2018: A Year of Dazzling Reforms & Stifling Standstill Part 1 and Part 2. Spoiler alert: the dazzling reforms are Ethiopia under Abiy and the stifling standstill are Eritrea under Isaias.
