HomeSSASub-Saharan Blues

The World Bank has come up with its forecast for 2017. It calls it Global Economic Prospects and it’s 276 pages.  You can read it here:

Here are the four most interesting tables, from its regional outlook. And, no, there is nothing about Eritrea.  And, apparently, Djibouti is not part of Sub-Saharan Africa but North Africa/Middleast.     The short version: Sub-Saharan Africa is behind and falling further behind.  The whys are: decline in commodities prices and oil prices, but that is just economist talk.  There is another explanation, which deals with the number of shooting wars in Africa and the Middle East: just refer to the Uppsala Conflict Data here which helps explain the World Bank’s economic forecasts, presented here in declining order:

(1) South Asia: Average GDP Growth for 2017: 7.1%

Country20152016201720182019
Afghanistan0.81.21.833.6
Bhutan6.57.49.911.711.7
Maldives1.93.53.94.64.6
Sri Lanka4.84.855.15.1
Bangladesh7.16.86.56.77
India7.677.67.87.8
Nepal0.654.84.74.7
Pakistan4.75.25.55.85.8
Average South Asia6.86.87.17.37.4


(2) East Asia and The Pacific: Average GDP Growth for 2017: 6.2%

Country20152016201720182019
Cambodia776.96.96.8
China6.96.76.56.36.3
Fiji4.12.43.93.73.5
Indonesia4.85.15.35.55.5
Lao PDR7.4776.87.2
Malaysia54.24.34.54.5
Mongolia2.30.123.53.7
Myanmar7.36.56.97.27.3
Papua New Guinea6.82.433.23
Philippines5.96.86.976.7
Solomon Islands3.333.333
Thailand2.83.13.23.33.4
Timor-Lesteb4.355.565.5
Vietnam6.766.36.36.2
Average East Asia/Pacific6.56.36.26.16.1


(3) Middle East and North Africa : Average GDP Growth for 2017: 3.1%

Country20152016201720182019
Algeria3.83.93.62.92.6
Bahrain4.42.921.82.1
Djibouti66.56.577
Egypt, Arab Republic3.74.44.24.45.1
Fiscal2.94.44.344.7
Iran, Islamic Republic4.31.74.65.24.8
Iraq0.12.910.21.10.7
Jordan3.12.42.32.63.1
Kuwait0.51.822.42.6
Lebanon1.81.31.82.22.3
Morocco2.64.51.543.5
Omanb2.55.72.52.93.4
Qatar43.61.83.62.1
Saudi Arabia3.63.511.62.5
Tunisia2.30.8233.7
United Arab Emirates3.13.82.32.53
West Bank and Gaza-0.23.53.33.53.5
Average Middle East/North Africa3.22.63.13.43.5

(4) Sub Saharan Africa GDP Growth For 2017: 2.9%

Country20152016201720182019
Ethiopia10.39.68.48.98.6
Côte d'Ivoire8.58.47.888.1
Tanzania776.97.17.1
Senegal4.36.56.66.87
Rwanda76.9667
Kenya5.35.65.966.1
Cameroon5.95.85.65.76.1
Mali765.65.15
Togo5.95.55.455.5
Burkina445.25.56
Guinea1.10.15.24.64.6
Niger6.93.555.36
Guinea-Bissau2.54.94.95.15.1
Benin6.554.65.25.3
Congo, Repubic6.82.64.64.33.7
Ugandab4.854.65.66
Madagascar3.33.14.14.54.8
Mauritania6.4344.23.8
Sierra Leonne4.6-21.13.96.95.9
Seychelles3.24.33.83.53.5
Ghana43.93.67.58.4
Mozambique7.46.63.65.26.6
Sudan3.14.23.53.73.7
Gabon4.33.93.23.84.6
Mauritius3.63.43.23.53.8
Botswanab3.2-0.33.144.3
Cabo1.81.533.33.5
Zambia52.82.944.2
Congo, Democratic Repubic9.56.92.74.75
Liberia0.702.55.85.3
Malawi5.72.82.54.24.5
Lesotho3.61.72.43.74
Comoros2.1122.53
Namibia6.45.31.655.4
Gambia, The0.94.70.50.82.6
Angola5.430.41.20.9
South Africa1.61.30.41.11.8
Zimbabwe3.81.10.43.83.4
Burundi4.7-3.9-0.52.53.5
Swaziland2.71.7-0.91.93.1
Nigeria6.32.7-1.712.5
Chad6.91.8-3.5-0.34.7
Equatorial Guinea-0.7-8.3-5.7-5.7-6.6
AVERAGE3.11.52.93.63.7