Eritrean social media is replete with rumors and speculations on what and why exactly Ethiopia has decided to do with its refugee camps hosting tens of thousands of Eritreans, including the underaged.
From our understanding, the following appears to be the case:
1. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, wants to shut down the refugee camps and present permanent identification to refugees. This would replace the identity card they have now which has to be renewed every six months and doesn’t grant the refugees work permit or opportunity to start a business. Refugees would be able to move freely throughout the country. Given Abiy Ahmed’s closeness to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, some have speculated that he is merely enforcing his friends wishes but this doesn’t appear to be the case since Abiy Ahmed wants to extend the same policy to refugees from South Sudan, Yemen, etc
2. Debretsion Ghebremichael, Tigray Region’s Deputy Administrator, argues that presenting Eritrean refugees a permanent residence status would present Eritrea President Isaias Afwerki with an opportunity to flood Tigray with “refugees” who are actually spies plotting mischief in Tigray, specially in an election year. This is the case because, argues Dr Debretsion, some Eritreans are completely indistinguishable from Tigrayans and security would be impossible to enforce. He argues that a better option would be to grant the refugees work permits, but not residence permits, which would allow them to work and start business, but control their movement.
The two sides are in the midst of negotiations.
Meanwhile, the refugee camp in Afar, Ethiopia’s other region which borders Eritrea, is closed.(*see end of article for important correction!)
3. Isaias Afwerki, Eritrea’s president, has given many and sometimes contradictory views about Eritrean refugees:
(a) They were tricked by the West, which has severe labor shortage, into leaving their countries;
(b) They are all from specific regions of Eritrea;
(c) We should not waste our time talking about them;
(d) They should return to Eritrea, but only after they have accumulated wealth or skill-sets useful to the country
An estimated 300-400 Eritrean refugees, many of whom are accompanied minors, are reportedly flocking to Ethiopia daily. Prior to the signing of the peace agreement with Ethiopia, the Eritrean government had argued one of the “push factors” resulting in Eritrea’s exodus was not the indefinite National Service but the state of no-war no-peace with Ethiopia. The fact that the exodus continues unabated, at the same rate as it was in years prior to the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship Between Eritrea And Ethiopia-Ethiopia, suggests that that was not a factor at all.
Among the three actors, there doesn’t appear to be a single one incentivizing Eritreans to stay put in Eritrea.
By opening diplomatic doors and legitimizing him as a peace ally, Dr. Abiy Ahmed has decided to empower Isaias Afwerki as he pursues policies detrimental to the Eritrean people. Such policies include indefinite national service, absence of constitution, thousands of political prisoners, and no reform of the defacto military dictatorship.
In an event commemorating the 45th anniversary of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Dr. Debretsion encouraged Eritreans, including members of the Eritrean Defense Forces, to see Tigray as their second home and to not be discouraged by talks of refugee centers closing.
Meanwhile, in countless speeches and interviews, Eritrean president has described those who seek refuge in other countries as a burden that the country is better-off without their presence and has made no policy changes (such as limiting national service) or softened his tone (calling on his people to return to their homeland.)
Wittingly or unwittingly, the cumulative effect of all three stated policies is to make Eritrea the fastest-emptying nation in the world.
* We apologize for the error: the refugee camp in Afar Region has *NOT* been closed, either. All three camps, two in Tigray and one in Afar are still open.)
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